Scenarios for Venezuelan resistance after Edmundo González’s exile

Europe, specifically Parliament, took an important step in the fight for the restoration of democracy in Venezuela by recognize Edmundo González Urrutia as president-elect (in exile) on Thursday in the elections held on July 28.

Approval was not easy and Venezuelan opposition members in exile, such as former mayor Antonio Ledezma, worked hard in Brussels to convince MEPs and achieve a result of 309 votes in favour and 201 against.

The first to grant this status to González Urrutia were the Spanish Congress and Senate, just a few days earlier. This was a “victory” for the opposition, who apparently have moved their fight to Europe, leaving aside the United States, a bastion that used to be on the front line, but which is now seen to be more restrained.

Without a doubt, González Urrutia, with his diplomatic experience, is also part of this articulation in Europe. Now, from his exile in Spain, it has been demonstrated that He was forced to abide by the ruling of the Supreme Court of Justice with his signature which certified the victory of Nicolás Maduro, an entity that was not responsible for this decision.

This follows his statements and the audio recordings that were published by the president of the Chavista National Assembly, Jorge Rodríguez. These were also accompanied by photographs in which he and his sister Delcy are seen handing documents to the opposition leader, who insists on the “coercion” to which he was subjected at the residence of the Spanish ambassador in Caracas.

Photo EFE/ Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Now it seems that Spain is becoming the center of the Venezuelan opposition resistance. This bothers the Maduro government, who He called his ambassador in Madrid, Gladys Gutiérrez, for consultations.This is an episode that has caused friction due to the contradictions between both parties regarding the exile of González Urrutia and the details of his departure from Caracas.

Caracas says that Madrid was part of the negotiation, while the other side denies it. González Urrutia himself had to “clarify” that he was not coerced by the Spanish government to leave his country.

Now, with the fight centered in Madrid, the situation has fostered optimism among the opposition exiles, a large part of which is concentrated in that country. However, one question remains: How much can the opposition in exile and Edmundo González do to help María Corina and put pressure on Maduro from Spain?

“The opportunity to see Edmundo González’s stature as a statesman is here. In his new position, the president-elect can do an extraordinary job in the face of the transition in Venezuela. The most important thing is that he feels supported by all the political and social sectors committed to change in Venezuela and in the world,” he told The Weather former deputy Juan Pablo García.

García is part of the Venezuelan exile in Madrid and one of those who pushed for recognition of the president-elect in the Spanish Senate. García fled in 2019, persecuted by the Venezuelan regime, and was one of the promoters of the application of the Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance (TIAR), a proposal promoted – in the National Assembly led by Juan Guaidó – by the members of the 16th of July faction, allies of María Corina Machado.

For Garcia, The president-elect does have room for maneuver, even if he is outside Venezuela. And this is because he considers Spain to be a democratic country “where the basis of the European Union’s policies towards Venezuela are usually prepared and where there is a powerful Venezuelan exile. I think these are excellent conditions to continue with his work.”

For his part, González Urrutia has limited himself to a few statements published on social media, according to his lawyer in Caracas, José Vicente Haro.

“My commitment to the mandate I have received from the sovereign people of Venezuela is non-negotiable. The approach to the struggle that María Corina Machado and I have led remains unwavering”said the opposition member after his meeting with Pedro Sánchez, President of the Spanish Government.

And the leaders seem to be confident that there are real possibilities of articulating the departure of Maduro, who never presented the evidence of his victory, despite the position of the Moncloa. “We have to see the minutes to know with transparency what the electoral result was. That is the position of the Spanish government,” said Félix Bolaños, Minister of the Presidency and Justice, at the congress.

An international front

González Urrutia now heads “an international front that is very important in an issue like Venezuela. We will then have María Corina Machado as the leader of the front and the national pressure and Edmundo as the leader of the international pressure. “to build more support,” Julio Borges, a former Venezuelan deputy also exiled in Spain, told this newspaper.

Many have questioned González’s departure, but for the diaspora it is an incentive.

“Even though we are already very well organized, Edmundo’s presence in Spain can help multiply and to strengthen our work in order to continue isolating and delegitimizing the dictatorship, which responds to the contrary interests of Latin America and is totally subordinated to Russia, Iran, Cuba and China and is in the anti-democratic and anti-Western quadrant,” Borges insists.

Borges was the president of Parliament and due to persecution by the Maduro government he had to flee first to Colombia and then to Spain. He also served as the foreign relations representative of Juan Guaidó’s interim government.

Knowing the international situation, Borges insists that González’s departure was due to pressure from Maduro and the actions of former Spanish socialist president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, who has intervened in multiple past crises. But who the opposition has frequently seen as an ally of the Chavista regime.

Maduro “is the bad cop, and Zapatero is the good cop, who is as perverse as the bad cop. Both are working to weaken the victory of July 28,” says Borges. Borges and García agree that this exile supports the struggle of the actors concentrated in Spain, who are also important figures, such as the former mayor Ledezma and the opposition leader of the Voluntad Popular party, Leopoldo López.

“Here it is possible to articulate very important sectors of today’s Venezuela. The recent mass demonstrations of Venezuelans in Madrid are an example of this,” says García. It is still too early to draw a possible conclusion, at least politically or in view of January 10, when the new president of Venezuela takes office.

Furthermore, this adds to the recent tensions that have been unleashed between Madrid and Caracas, which had a new episode after Chavismo accused the Spanish intelligence services of plotting an alleged plot against Madurowhich Spain strongly rejects.

Something that seems foreseeable so far is a possible break in relations between Caracas and Madrid. This was made clear by the president of the Venezuelan legislature, the Chavista Jorge Rodríguez, who threatened to close all commercial, diplomatic and air relations.

The biggest loser is Caracas, which already has more than 50% of its airspace reduced after the recent break with Panama and the Dominican Republic. In addition, Repsol, the Spanish oil company, has signed big deals with Petróleos de Venezuela, giving a breath of fresh air to the Venezuelan economy, always dependent on hydrocarbons.

Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares and Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia. Photo: EFE/ Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Republicans and Democrats

Back in America, US Republicans called for a pause in oil licenses and more pressure on the Venezuelan government. Democrats lamented that diplomacy was not bearing fruit, but both agreed to stand up to Maduro’s “dictatorship” in a session in Congress on Friday.

In a highly polarized country, especially with less than a month and a half to go before the US presidential elections, it is difficult to find common ground between the Democrats of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris and the Republicans who support Donald Trump. But a session of the House of Representatives subcommittee on Latin America and the Caribbean made it clear that They join hands against what they call a “dictatorship.”

On Friday, Maduro spoke by phone with UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who expressed his “concern over post-election violence and allegations of human rights violations.” The call was at the initiative of the Venezuelan president, Guterres’ spokesman Stéphane Dujarric said at his daily press conference.

In that call, Guterres insisted to Maduro that it is necessary “resolve any political dispute peacefully through genuine and inclusive dialogue.”

The spokesman did not explain what message Maduro conveyed, but said that “he spoke very clearly and frankly about how he sees the situation,” which Guterres “took note of.”

In previous statements, Guterres has demanded that Venezuela communicate the detailed results of the electoral records of the July 28 elections, which has not happened. He has also lamented the lack of transparency of the Venezuelan authorities. However, he has also recently said that the economic sanctions imposed by Washington “do not help” to resolve the situation.

Despite these words, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil criticized Guterres last week, saying that the Secretary-General “avoids condemning the application of unilateral coercive measures (and) sides with those who sanction illegally. It is an affront to the mandate that States have given him, all for defending Venezuela’s aggressors,” he said.

A perception that is not shared by several Latin American countries, as they have asked the UN Human Rights Council to investigate the regime’s serious violations of human rights.

Grupo de Diarios América (GDA), to which El Nacional belongs, is a network of leading media outlets founded in 1991, which promotes democratic values, independent press and freedom of expression in Latin America through quality journalism for our audiences.