Maduro’s “screwing” and its effects on “total peace”

A month has passed since the presidential elections in Venezuela in which the The National Electoral Council declared Nicolás Maduro the winner, a result that the opposition describes as fraud and claims as the winner Edmundo Gonzalez. Questions raised by organizations and the international community regarding the electoral process have led to a radicalization of the Venezuelan president’s discourse.

Facing Colombia, Ripe He has maintained a more cautious tone and has assured that he has friends in the country who defend him. “Those in Colombia who dare to attack Venezuela, our friends will protect us,” he said during a virtual summit with heads of state of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA).

ELN and ‘Marquez’

These words have been interpreted by several analysts as indicating that the Venezuelan regime has been supporting Colombian armed groups that have settled in the neighbouring country for years. These same experts consider that the “radicalization of authoritarianism” in Venezuela “deadly strikes at ‘total peace’” because, in practice, Maduro’s current discourse It allows the preservation of the ‘strategic sanctuary’ that both the ELN and the ‘Second Marquetalia’ have built on Venezuelan soil, which would not have to leave that country as long as the regime continues to use them to protect border areas and control illicit economies.

Professor Emeritus of the National University and political analyst Eduardo Pizarro Leongómez believes that whether or not Maduro remains in power in Venezuela will influence the future of ‘total peace’. “If Maduro clings to power and manages to remain in it, he will try to use both the ELN and the dissident group ‘Central General Staff’ (Emc) and the ‘Second Marquetalia’ in its process of establishing itself in power,” said the academic.

Pizarro stressed that we must not forget that the ELN defines itself as a “binational guerrilla” which, in addition to political-military actions, “plays a role in defense of the Bolivarian revolution.”

But the academic poses another scenario. He warns that “total peace” “would be favored” if Maduro were forced to hand over the government to González, since not only the ELN would see one of its self-assigned functions disappear; It would also “lose its strategic rearguard on the common border, just like the Emc and the ‘Second Marquetalia’”, meaning that the Petro government’s peace policy could benefit from a change of government.

Elizabeth Dickinson, senior analyst for Colombia at the International Crisis Group, says that negotiations with the ELN “will not move forward until there is a solution to the situation in Venezuela.”What Venezuela is currently experiencing is putting the trust between the parties at risk. For the ELN, the presence of Venezuela as a guarantor state has been fundamental. “If Venezuela is not there, it is very difficult to imagine that the ELN will sit down to continue the conversation,” Dickinson added, highlighting that the Colombian government “finds it difficult to call on Venezuela to continue in its role as guarantor country” due to the diplomatic strategy it is handling.

For Luis Fernando Trejos, professor at the U. del Norte and expert in peace negotiations and armed conflict, If Maduro remains in power, the ELN will continue to regulate much of the economic activity in the Orinoco mining arc and the ‘Second Marquetalia’ would continue to control a large part of the border communities, which frees up the Bolivarian Forces in those areas, allowing them to be moved to other territories in the neighboring country.

“The scenario is quite complex, since there would be no pressure from Venezuela for armed groups to abandon their territory, but there would be greater entrenchment of the same,” Trejo explained.

In contrast, a different scenario poses Danna Urdaneta, researcher on conflicts and who has covered the peace processes with the ELN and the ‘Second Marquetalia’. For her it is “false” that the continuation of Maduro in power means the strengthening of the border fronts of the ELN and the ‘Second Marquetalia’.

“The political solution with the ELN and the ‘Second Marquetalia’ involves one that overcomes the structural causes of the origin of the conflict shared on both sides of the border, although in the process with the ELN the border has not been the subject of an agreement, not even for the critical areas.. Although Venezuela is formally a guarantor and not part, its mediation in times of crisis can promote agreements, binational territorial policies and shared implementation from the Venezuelan State,” said Urdaneta.

According to the expert, the above was not contemplated in Edmundo González’s foreign policy government program: “Only Maduro committed to it. Therefore, “A possible González government does not represent a guarantee for ‘total peace’.”