Monthend Budget, new UNC faces, November PNM internal polls

At 10.13 am on Tuesday, the property tax line outside the Board of Inland Revenue’s Port-of- Spain complex was the longest of three at the front doors to the courtyard.

Signs designating lines might have saved security officers double duty guiding people, some of whom expressed concern about the organisation of the activity.

Finance Minister Colm Imbert’s opportunity to showcase organisation—and at this juncture, overall public communication—skills arrives with his 2024/2025 Budget.

Presentation of Government’s tenth and final Budget for this term—in a general election year—will be an increased spotlight moment for Imbert after Monday’s Parliament resumption. Finance sources hinted at possible Budget delivery by month-end September 30 or September 23. The 2023 package was delivered on September 26, 2022. They said either date allows for the requisite three weeks of Budget scrutiny by both Houses of Parliament and the Standing Finance Committee before Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley leaves for Samoa and the October 21-26 Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting.

PM Rowley’s expected to speak in the debate, particularly considering his Government’s term’s end and elections. A date announcement is expected by Friday’s launch of the fifth and final session of the 12th Parliament.

Imbert’s unenviable task of balancing and brightening Government’s final management prescription before elections has to ensure it meets the approval of 1.4 million stressed people, plus local and international climate requirements after two gruelling terms.

It’s expected to be based on the promised new mechanism to estimate energy prices rather than the Henry Hub model whose usage saw a ballooning 2024 Budget deficit by June.

Shadowed by worsening crime and its effects on the economy, Government’s latest step on the election road with the package will have to account overall for the term’s performance. Financial reporting and economic outlook will be compared with the concerning assessments Imbert gave in his affidavit in the PSA’s challenge of the T&T Revenue Authority.

How much current lower energy prices and production allow it to be an “election budget“ remains ahead. But since it covers the election year October 2024 to September 2025, a manifesto edge is expected.

Public attention will be on costs, including implementing the Coat of Arms changes and project completion—PoS Hospital Central Block, San Fernando Boardwalk, Tobago Airport Terminal, and a last quarter shift of the Information division from Morvant to the OPM’s St Clair base.

The PNM’s November 17 “troops” convention heightens internal election prepping via executive elections for 12 posts. Most holders in June signalled seeking re-election. The posts of political leader (Rowley), chairman (Stuart Young) and Foster Cummings (general secretary) end in 2026.

Imbert’s Budget will rebound his dimmed profile after not being appointed to act as PM in Rowley’s absence. Whether this was due to Budget finalisation, Young’s appointment for a second time emphasised PNM succession planning considerations. A third appointment—or not—will say more.

Scrutiny’s on the five PNM constituencies the UNC‘s targeting after its assessments. While La Horquetta MP Cummings’ “reply” is to mount an event tomorrow, public polling will give the real picture.

UNC’s targeted retention of five of its own seats where there are issues, is a reply to PNM prioritising nominees there—signalling concern.

Party strengthening has so far produced someone tipped to contest San Fernando West, former Naparima College principal Dr Michael Dowlat. He spoke at UNC’s July San Fernando Budget consultations and officially debuted on UNC’s platform at last Sunday’s media briefing.

An education background favours him to replace UNC’s education spokesman Anita Haynes-Alleyne, who is among MP Rushton Paray’s estranged team from the recent internal elections. SF West nominations filed in April included from Senator Jayanti Lutchmedial, also filing for Naparima.

Whatever is unveiled for Friday’s fifth session launch—PNM Budget date or UNC opportunity for estranged MP Rai Ragbir’s seat to be shifted minus hearing of his matter – UNC leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar’s Budget reply will likely include manifesto plans.

UNC’s rift with NTA’s Gary Griffith has divided his attacks between PNM and UNC. His vote-splitting plans targeting the same seats as the UNC, however, now make his fight with UNC beneficial to the PNM.

After Monday’s Parliament resumption: much ahead for Parliamentarians now with months of political life left of the term. And for some—on both sides—none after.

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