As Donald Trump reclaims the White House, Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) finds itself firmly in Washington’s sights.
T&T’s strategic position in the Caribbean means that any significant US policy shift is bound to ripple through its economy and regional partnerships. With the US investing over US$400 million in a new embassy in Port of Spain, the deep-seated interest in T&T as a reliable ally has never been more evident. As US Ambassador Candace Bond remarked in April 2023, “T&T is a long-term partner,” reaffirming Washington’s commitment to its southern neighbour. With Trump’s campaign platform echoing his previous policies, it’s clear his “America First” stance may bring shifts across trade, energy, and regional security in ways that will demand T&T’s close attention. As Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley noted in his congratulatory statement, Trump was handed a mandate, signalling Americans’ “trust in [his] vision for the future.” This trust suggests we may see swift executive actions and legislative manoeuvres before the 2027 mid-terms. The question for T&T is not only how to read between the lines of these policy shifts but how to strategically respond.
Trade: Trump’s tariff policies
Trade between the US and T&T remains robust, with a positive balance of US$31.7 million as of August 2024. Although Trump is known for his pro-tariff stance, T&T’s trade dynamics do not currently conflict with his “America First” agenda.
A quick recap of tariffs: these are taxes placed on imports to protect domestic industries or generate revenue. Under Trump’s previous administration, nearly US$80 billion in new tariffs targeted goods worth approximately US$380 billion. While these policies have been maintained, the effects in T&T have been relatively muted. This is evident according to T&T’s Central Statistical Office; the retail sector’s recent price index even saw declines, with clothing and footwear down 2.8% and household furnishings down 4.7%. Trump’s re-entry provides an opportunity for T&T to continue assessing trade impacts and preparing for possible shifts. For now, this “tariff war” seems more rhetoric than reality for T&T’s economy.
Energy: balancing migration
and market dynamics
The Trump administration’s approach to Venezuela and migration could pose unique challenges for T&T’s energy interests. Trump has criticised Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro, linking illegal migration in the US and describing it as a “migrant crime” crisis. With over ten million migrants reportedly entering the US, some related to crime, the administration has taken a hard stance on Venezuela.
T&T’s energy relationship with Venezuela, particularly the Dragon gas field and the Manakin-Cocuina cross-border exploration, may come under scrutiny. While Trump has not explicitly targeted T&T’s energy deals with Venezuela, the crosswinds of border security in the US could influence the US position on T&T’s energy relations with Venezuela. As Prime Minister Rowley highlighted, maintaining strong cross-border deals will require diplomatic finesse, as Trump is likely to approach the situation pragmatically—true to his philosophy that “the art of the deal” governs all.
Nonetheless, T&T’s commitment to its energy sector resilience and independence has proven durable, suggesting it may withstand the “crosswinds” of Trump’s renewed focus on border and migration policy.
Regional security: law and
order meets public health
When it comes to crime, T&T has long benefited from US support through the Caribbean Basin Security Initiative (CBSI), which has provided expertise from US law enforcement agencies like the FBI, DEA, and CIA. In February 2024, Prime Minister Rowley expressed gratitude for this cooperation, affirming that it “improves T&T’s fight against organised crime.”
Trump’s staunch “law and order” stance aligns closely with Caricom’s recent framing of crime as a “public health emergency”, targeting issues stemming from illegal drugs, arms trafficking, and human trafficking.
However, Trump’s association with the National Rifle Association (NRA) and support for gun manufacturers could complicate T&T’s recent collaboration as an amicus curiae (friend of the court) with Mexico in suing US gun manufacturers. Trump’s policies might limit the scope of T&T’s efforts to reduce the influx of illegal firearms, especially given his support for the powerful gun lobby. Despite these potential hurdles, T&T must continue to prioritise addressing the “source” of its crime issues through proactive policy, regardless of shifts in US administration.
Seizing opportunity
amid change
As Donald Trump once again takes the helm, T&T stands at a crossroads. Trump’s policies, particularly in areas of trade, energy, and security, could challenge and test T&T’s resilience. However, these challenges also open doors for T&T to strengthen its standing as a reliable US partner. Trump’s “peace through strength” philosophy may align with T&T’s goals for a “zone of peace” in the Caribbean, and his emphasis on prosperity offers a foundation for building robust trade and energy ties. The world is watching as T&T balances its enduring principles—like non-intervention and mutual respect—with the demands of a new US administration. Trinidad and Tobago’s future may well depend on its ability to stay agile and strategic, navigating the complexities of a changing US-Caribbean partnership. If anything, T&T’s strategic role in the hemisphere means the stakes are high, and the opportunities even higher.
• Mwale Henry is an executive leadership adviser, behavioural pollster, and chief strategist at The Legacy Project LLC, Atlanta, Georgia.